{"id":1710,"date":"2019-06-26T18:18:48","date_gmt":"2019-06-26T18:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/?p=1710"},"modified":"2019-06-26T19:54:03","modified_gmt":"2019-06-26T19:54:03","slug":"cuanta-energia-renovable-no-convencional-puede-integrar-un-sistema-electrico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/cuanta-energia-renovable-no-convencional-puede-integrar-un-sistema-electrico\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCU\u00c1NTA ENERG\u00cdA RENOVABLE NO CONVENCIONAL PUEDE INTEGRAR UN SISTEMA EL\u00c9CTRICO?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Fuente: Energ\u00eda Estrat\u00e9gica
\nColumna de Opini\u00f3n Oscar Ferre\u00f1o<\/p>\n

Anteriormente mencionamos la necesidad de integrar energ\u00edas renovables no convencionales (ERNC) en los sistemas el\u00e9ctricos para disminuir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Tambi\u00e9n comentamos que las ERNC m\u00e1s importantes (la e\u00f3lica y la solar) no son gestionables, y que se deben considerar como una demanda negativa y que la demanda neta resultante puede, en algunos momentos, ser m\u00e1s variable y menos predecible que la demanda total. Por lo anterior, dec\u00edamos que era necesario disponer de energ\u00edas convencionales m\u00e1s flexibles hasta que las tecnolog\u00edas de almacenamiento se volviesen m\u00e1s competitivas.<\/p>\n

Ahora bien, \u00bfcu\u00e1nta e\u00f3lica o solar puede soportar un sistema el\u00e9ctrico sin almacenamiento y sin presentar problemas de gesti\u00f3n? Una primera respuesta es que el sistema puede absorber tanta potencia de ERNC como cantidad tenga instalada de hidroel\u00e9ctricas. Esta afirmaci\u00f3n, que es m\u00e1s bien una llamada \u201cregla de pulgar\u201d, se basa en la flexibilidad de operaci\u00f3n que presentan las hidroel\u00e9ctricas, cuya rapidez para tomar o dejar carga unida a su capacidad de almacenar energ\u00eda en sus embalses permite a estas copiar perfectamente las variaciones de la demanda neta. Se destaca que a\u00fan las centrales hidroel\u00e9ctricas de pasada, es decir las que no tienen embalse, igualmente tienen capacidad de almacenamiento de al menos algunas horas.<\/p>\n

Esto ubicar\u00eda a Argentina con una capacidad de admitir unos 15.000 MW de ERNC.<\/p>\n

Esta \u201cregla de pulgar\u201d, si bien es efectiva en cuanto a la estabilidad del sistema el\u00e9ctrico, no es tan cierta en cuanto a la cantidad econ\u00f3micamente \u00f3ptima de ERNC. Es decir, se puede correr el riesgo de una sobreinversi\u00f3n en el parque de generaci\u00f3n. Como las ERNC no son gestionables, un exceso de estas puede producir un derrame e\u00f3lico o solar. Por ejemplo, si instalamos una potencia e\u00f3lica equivalente a la potencia m\u00e1xima demandada por el sistema es obvio que el viento pude hacer que se produzca la potencia m\u00e1xima de la e\u00f3lica en un momento que la demanda no sea la m\u00e1xima, y entonces estar\u00edamos ante un \u201cderrame e\u00f3lico\u201d.<\/p>\n

La demanda total es continua y variable, instante a instante, presentando un m\u00e1ximo y m\u00ednimo diario. Estos, a su vez, presentan m\u00e1ximos y m\u00ednimos semanales, mensuales y anuales. La energ\u00eda media anual vendr\u00eda representada por una potencia media equivalente m\u00e1s o menos al promedio entre el m\u00e1ximo y m\u00ednimo anual (Gr\u00e1fico 1<\/em>).<\/p>\n

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Si la potencia instalada de ERNC es cercana a esa potencia media anual entonces el derrame de ERNC seria m\u00ednimo o pr\u00e1cticamente nulo.<\/p>\n

Los alrededor de 100.000 GWh anuales de Argentina representan una potencia media de algo m\u00e1s de 11.000 MW.<\/p>\n

\u00bfY cu\u00e1nto representar\u00eda esa energ\u00eda proveniente de ERNC? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Si se trata de energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica que est\u00e9 distribuida en una regi\u00f3n, y hacemos una gr\u00e1fica\u00a0 de probabilidad de excedencia colocando al principio las potencias m\u00e1s altas, vemos que tenemos un comportamiento \u00a0en forma triangular. Es decir, pocos eventos con los parques produciendo a plena potencia, pocos eventos con potencia nula y el resto alineados, la energ\u00eda de estos parques ser\u00eda el \u00e1rea bajo la curva. Si se trata de parques e\u00f3licos en Argentina estar\u00edamos en un factor de capacidad te\u00f3rico de 50% (Gr\u00e1fico 2)<\/em><\/p>\n

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Si se trata de parques solares, obviamente la mitad de estos eventos ser\u00edan en horas nocturnas y no producir\u00eda energ\u00eda. En este caso, el factor de capacidad te\u00f3rico ser\u00eda de un 25% (Gr\u00e1fico 3).
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

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If it is a combination of solar and wind farms (say 40\/60), the capacity factor would be 40%.<\/p>\n

Therefore, if we install a quantity of NCRE equivalent to the average demand power, we can, without producing unmanageable NCRE spills, cover 40% of the demand (Graph 4).<\/p>\n

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En resumen, parecer\u00eda que en las condiciones actuales Argentina podr\u00eda instalar entre 10.000 y 11.000 MW de ERNC sin mayores problemas de gesti\u00f3n. Estas ERNC cubrir\u00edan un 40 % de la demanda y, junto con las grandes hidroel\u00e9ctricas, se podr\u00eda cubrir hasta el 80 % de la demanda con energ\u00eda renovables.<\/p>\n

Mejoras en la infraestructura de transmisi\u00f3n y la progresiva instalaci\u00f3n de capacidad de almacenamiento en el sistema (ya sea centrales hidroel\u00e9ctricas reversibles o bater\u00edas estacionarias) permitir\u00e1n seguir cubriendo el crecimiento de la demanda con m\u00e1s instalaci\u00f3n de ERNC y mejorar a\u00fan m\u00e1s los porcentajes de participaci\u00f3n de estas tecnolog\u00edas.<\/p>\n

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Source: Energ\u00eda Estrat\u00e9gica
\nOpinion Column<\/p>\n

Previously, we mentioned the need to integrate non-conventional renewable energies (NCRE) in the electric system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We also commented that the most important NCRE (wind and solar) are not manageable, and that they should be considered as a negative demand and that the resulting net demand may, at some moments, be more variable and less predictable than the total demand. Therefore, we said that it was necessary to have more flexible conventional energies until the storage technologies became more competitive.<\/p>\n

Now, how much wind or solar energy can support an electrical system without storage and without presenting management problems? A first answer is that the system can absorb as much NCRE power as the amount of hydroelectric plants installed. This statement, which is the so-called \u00abthumb rule\u00bb, is based on the flexibility of operation presented by hydroelectric plants, whose rapidity to take or leave load together with their capacity to store energy in their reservoirs allows them to copy perfectly the variations in the net demand. It is pointed out that even run-of-the-river hydroelectric power plants, also have a storage capacity of at least a few hours.<\/p>\n

This would place Argentina with a capacity to admit more than 15,000 MW of NCRE.<\/p>\n

This \u00abthumb rule\u00bb, while effective in terms of the stability of the electrical system, is not so convenient in terms of the economically optimal amount of NCRE. An excess of these can produce a wind or solar spill. For example, if we install a wind power equivalent to the maximum power demanded by the system, it is obvious that the wind could produce the maximum power at a time when the demand is not the maximum, and then we would be facing a \u00abwind spill\u00bb.<\/p>\n

The total demand is continuous and variable, instant to instant, presenting a maximum and minimum daily. These, present maximums and minimums weekly, monthly and annualy. The average annual energy would be represented by an average power equivalent more or less the average between the annual maximum and minimum (Figure 1).<\/p>\n

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If the installed capacity of NCRE is close to that annual average power, then the ERNC spill would be minimal or practically nul.<\/p>\n

The annual 100,000 GWh of Argentina represents an average power of over 11,000 MW.<\/p>\n

How much would that energy represent from NCRE?<\/strong><\/p>\n

If it is wind energy that is distributed in a region, and we make a probability of exceedance graph by placing the highest power at the beginning, we see that it behaves in triangular form. That is, few events with the parks producing at full power, few events with zero power and the rest aligned, the energy of these parks would be the area under the curve. If it is about wind farms in Argentina we would be at a theoretical capacity factor of 50% (Graph 2)<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

If it is solar farms, obviously half of these events would be at night and would not produce energy. In this case, the theoretical capacity factor would be 25% (Graph 3).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

If it is a combination of solar and wind farms (say 40\/60), the capacity factor would be 40%.<\/p>\n

Therefore, if we install a quantity of NCRE equivalent to the average demand power, we can, without producing unmanageable NCRE spills, cover 40% of the demand (Graph 4).<\/p>\n

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It would seem that under current conditions Argentina could install between 10,000 and 11,000 MW of NCRE without major management problems. These NCREs would cover 40% of the demand and, together with the large hydroelectric plants, up to 80% of the demand could be covered with renewable energy.<\/p>\n

Improvements in the transmission infrastructure and the progressive installation of storage capacity in the system (either reversible hydroelectric plants or stationary batteries) will allow us to continue covering the growth of demand with more installation of NCRE and improve the participation percentages of these technologies.<\/p>\n

[\/tp]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[tp lang=\u00bbes\u00bb not_in=\u00bben\u00bb] Fuente: Energ\u00eda Estrat\u00e9gica Columna de Opini\u00f3n Oscar Ferre\u00f1o Anteriormente mencionamos la necesidad de integrar energ\u00edas renovables no convencionales (ERNC) en los sistemas el\u00e9ctricos para disminuir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Tambi\u00e9n comentamos que las ERNC m\u00e1s importantes (la e\u00f3lica y la solar) no son gestionables, y que se deben considerar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,31,59,1,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-argentina","category-recurso-eolico","category-recurso-solar","category-sin-categoria","category-ventus"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1710"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1710\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1723,"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1710\/revisions\/1723"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ventus.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}